Moreover, trade liberalisation only generates economic growth under specific conditions. Research into the “migration hump” shows that growth in poor countries initially spurs migration, with a reduction coming only after a minimum income threshold has been crossed. This does not mean, however, that trade and growth necessarily and automatically reduce migration movements. A second is more ambivalent: it is assumed that international trade reduces the causes of migration in the long term, by contributing to economic growth and thus to sustainable development. One relationship is uncontested: Migration always has a positive effect on trade flows, increasing exports and imports especially in the receiving country. Another hindrance to research is that the effects of trade policy instruments are almost impossible to isolate from other factors, such as internal and external circumstances, wars, climate change, economic crises etc. However, more recent theories and empirical observations both suggest that the relationship is a great deal more complex. One reason for this is that neoclassical international trade theory posits a clear and unambiguous relationship between the two: trade leads to wage convergence and this lessens the incentive to migrate. To what extent can policy contribute to stemming migration flows? Or does it function as a catalyst or even a trigger? These questions also apply to trade policy, even if there has been almost no research to date into the connection between trade policy and migration with respect to “combating the causes of refugee movements”. The political debate about migration and flight touches on all spheres of policy. ■ The respective policy instruments for trade and migration need to be better coordinated in order to reduce the contradictions between them and to address justified concerns about uncontrolled immigration. The EU has already completely opened its markets to most sub-Saharan countries. South Africa and the countries of North Africa offer the greatest potential to expand market access. ■ Ecological and social aspects of investment and trade should be better integrated in all free trade agreements. This question is especially relevant for the EU, as it faces the looming problem of labour shortages in the ageing societies of its member states. ■ Using trade agreements to create legal migration opportunities in the area of services reduces the incentive for irregular migration. A certain level of income is required before people are able to emigrate at all. ■ Conversely, the effect of trade agreements on migration is sometimes positive, sometimes negative: If they lead to increasing per capita income they may temporarily stimulate migration. ■ One aspect is incontestable: Migration always has a positive effect on trade flows. Other factors (such as war, economic crisis etc.) often play a larger role as triggers of migration than trade policy and trade agreements. ■ The latest theoretical and empirical findings highlight the enormous complexity of the relationship between trade and migration. ■ Trade agreements can contribute to long term development – and thus to addressing the causes of flight and migration – as long as they consistently pursue sustainable development and real market opening.
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